GBPUSD is in the process of re-examining the toughened resistance zone from 1.3185 – 1.3211, which has been keeping advances at bay. The strengthening 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and the recent bullish crossover of the 200-day SMA by the 50-day one, suggest further gains may unfold.
Glancing at the short-term oscillators, they reflect a pickup in positive momentum. The MACD, some distance in the positive region, is holding below its red trigger line and appears it could repossess it. The RSI has returned to overbought territory, while the positive stochastic oscillator is approaching the 80 mark. Nevertheless, positive momentum would need to endure around overbought levels to sustain a climb.
In a positive scenario, buyers face an early unbroken resistance band from 1.3185 – 1.3211, made up of key peaks extending back to January and March. Conquering this heavy barrier, a nearby obstructing level, involving the upper Bollinger band and the 1.3283 high from December 31 may challenge upside momentum. If buying interest persists, the pair may rally towards the 19-month peak of 1.3514, before setting eyes on the 1.3617 high and the 1.3710 inside swing low of March 2018.
If sellers resurface, initial hindrance may occur at the 1.3000 low joined by the mid-Bollinger band. Breaching this handle, reinforced support may arise from the 1.2767 – 1.2812 section, where the lower Bollinger band also lies. Not far beneath, the 200-day SMA’s bullish crossover zone around 1.2710, may attempt to deny sellers more loss of ground. Should steeper declines unfold, the price may test the 100-day SMA at 1.2560 and another critical support band relating to the 1.2479 and 1.2510 troughs.
Summarizing, a neutral-to-bullish bias remains intact above 1.2812 and the 1.3000 handle. That said, a break above 1.3211 could repower the short-to-medium term outlook.