The markets are (possibly) set to be as choppy this week as much as they were last week. The choppiness could materialise in the Forex market as two major Central Banks of the world take the spotlight. On Tuesday, the US Central Bank will be evaluating their response to the pandemic before members of the Senate panel on Covid aid. On Wednesday, the BoE will update the market as to its evaluation of the British economy and its monetary policy.
Tuesday is when it all begins
In his first outing since lasts week’s FOMC, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will (virtually) head to Capitol Hill to address Washington politicians on Tuesday. The topic of discussion will centre on “lessons learned” regarding the Feds response to the global pandemic and its economic consequences.
Investors are currently trying to parse fact from fiction regarding what they hear from the Fed and what the market reports. Of particular concern are contradictions between the Fed’s outlook for inflation, the Fed’s massive money printing regime, and the rise and subsequent fall in commodity prices.
Last week’s FOMC only served to increase interest in Powell’s public appearances. Last week’s FOMC was notable for the Fed’s change in 2021 inflation projections, as well as expected long-term inflationary pressure. For example, the Fed’s 2021 inflation projections rose from 2.4% to 3.4%, while it now expects two interest rate hikes by the end of 2023.
A brief reprieve is granted the USD until Thursday when we can expect to see May Orders for Durable Goods, GDP annualised (Q1), as well as the Bank Stress Test report from the Federal Reserve System.
It will be interesting to see if the USD’s bullish turn last week will continue when the markets open this Monday. Further, I wonder if Powell will be drawn on any topic outside the stated reason for his Senate testimony. If he can be drawn to speak on topics outside the scope of the meeting, the USD bullishness could easily be boosted or damped by Powell’s next outing.
GBP Forex traders: Clear your Wednesday schedule
Great Britain’s FOMC equivalent is due this Wednesday. We will learn about any impending changes to The Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy and discover any change in its stance regarding the factors affecting the GB economy.
It is unlikely that significant changes will be announced to BoE monetary policy on Wednesday. Nor is it likely that the BoE will take a hard stance on the country’s economic outlook. The BoE could easily use the uncertainty created by the Government prolonging the country’s lockdown, as well as and the evolution of the Delta Covid variant in the country to avoid making any changes to its projections. But, anything that indicates that the BoE will deviate from its existing monetary policy, or outlook in any economic sector will be carefully watched by the market.